How the RNC Shifted Polling Numbers

By Eric Zanzucchi (@ericzanzucchi)

There have been a lot of positive opinions circulating on how Romney and friends performed at the RNC last week. At this point I’m only interested in the bottom line. According to CNN Polling Director Keating Holland, Mitt Romney rose 1% in the polls after the conclusion of the convention.

Initially the statistic shocked me because that sounds like a lot. It amazed me that the convention had that much of an impact on voters until later in the article Keating stated:

“It’s pretty standard for all conventions conducted since 2000. Twice during that period, candidates got a two-point bounce; twice in that same time, candidates got no bounce at all. So Romney’s one-point bounce is right in the middle of the range that political junkies have come to expect in the 21st century.”

So for all the accolades the Romney campaign has received over the past week they in reality had average results. 1% is still a lot to gain in one week, their problem is that now Obama has the stage. Romney can still claim a net gain if Obama moves the polls less than 1%. However, if Obama can out perform him at the DNC it looks increasingly unlikely that Romney will overcome the small lead that Obama’s been nursing all this time. The ball is in your court Barack.

One comment

  1. Anonymous · · Reply

    It shocked you because of how large it is? People have had as much as a 24 percent bounce coming out of the convention in years past. 1% is nothing, it’s under most polls’ margin of error.
    Source: http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2012/08/29/us/politics/29fivethirtyeight-bounce/29fivethirtyeight-bounce-custom3.gif

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